Excel Challenge #6: Rolling 3-Month Sales Average (Trend Analysis)

Difficulty

Intermediate

Estimated Time

20–30 minutes

The Problem

Single-month numbers are noisy.
In real reporting, analysts smooth trends using rolling averages to understand what’s really happening over time.

Your task is to calculate a rolling 3-month average of sales, a pattern commonly used in finance, forecasting, and performance monitoring.

Dataset

Create a worksheet named MonthlySales with the following data:

MonthSales
2024-1012500
2024-1113800
2024-1214200
2025-0115100
2025-0214750
2025-0315900
2025-0416250
2025-0516800
2025-0617200

Your Task

Part A — Prepare the Data

  1. Ensure the Month column is treated as a date (not text).
  2. Keep the data sorted chronologically.

Part B — Calculate the Rolling Average

  1. Add a new column named 3-Month Rolling Average.

Rules:

  • Each value should represent the average of the current month and the two previous months
  • The first two months will not have a rolling average (leave blank or show N/A)

Part C — Trend Check (Optional)

  1. Add a column called Trend Direction:
  • "Up" if the rolling average increased vs the previous month
  • "Down" if it decreased
  • "Flat" if unchanged

Requirements

  • Use Excel formulas only
  • No manual calculations
  • Results must update automatically if data changes

Expected Output (Examples)

MonthSales3-Month Avg
2024-121420013500
2025-011510014367
2025-021475014683
2025-031590015250

(Values rounded for illustration.)

Hints (Optional)

  • Use AVERAGE() with relative ranges
  • Lock ranges carefully to avoid copy errors
  • For Trend Direction, compare current vs previous rolling values

Learning Objectives

By completing this challenge, you will learn how to:

  • Smooth time-series data
  • Build rolling calculations
  • Prepare Excel data for forecasting and dashboards

Why This Matters

Rolling averages appear everywhere:

  • Revenue trends
  • KPI monitoring
  • Forecast models
  • Executive dashboards

This challenge introduces time-aware thinking in Excel.

Next Challenge

Excel Challenge #7: Sales vs Target Variance Analysis

🔗 View reference solution on GitHub
(After you’ve tried the challenge)

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